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12.11.2011. /

By Ivan Ninic

In the decades to come, Serbia will not be able to easily forget the 22nd September 2011. year, when Prime Minister Mirko Cvetkovic, visibly proud and agitated, told the public that his government commissioned the country for another billion dollars, with interest of 7.25 percent and a repayment period of 10 years.

 "This is a historic tpenutak, for the first time state securities listed on the European market," said Prime Minister Cvetkovic ("Beta", 22 9th 2011.). If the regime in one day, on the shoulders of future generations loaded debt of one billion dollars, then you really have to agree with the assessment that this historical event. For the Prime Minister is impressive is that investor demand for bonds Serbia was twice higher than the supply. He believes that "break the ice", or sale of securities in the European bezrama, Serbia has shown that the country participating, "not only in trade but also in the financial exchange with the world."

Cvetkovic impressions are not too shocking, because his government will be remembered for the fact that each of its failure, marketing techniques, represented as an epoch-making success. What a success if you will, starting from March 2012. years, until September, the 2021st year, the state budget each year Serbia will have to pay 72.5 million dollars in interest? Interest will be nakrpiti somehow, even if short-term borrowings by commercial banks in the West, but from what sources the state will eventually return to the principal of the debt of one billion dollars? This will only 10 years will have to think another government, which will remain nothing more than to re-task the state, but this time for refinancing from the 2011th year. The question is whether it will happen by then the fate of Serbia, Greece, and the fate of other countries such as Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland ...

OF SECURITIES TO PARA: Playing with state bonds regime in Serbia was chosen as the fastest and easiest way to fill the budget deficit, which is especially a consequence of the collapse of the plan to sell state-owned company "Telekom Serbia". In Serbia, the first issue državih records in the euro currency held on 29 December 2010. when he was also supposed to fill the hole in the budget. Then, at an annual interest rate of 5.25 percent, Express sell six-month bills worth 21 billion dinars. At the end of March this year, Director of the Public Debt Branislav Toncic Government announced plans to go out to the international capital market. "The intention is to broadcast Euro bonds in the foreign market, worth 500 million euros, which would be enough to cover all the needs of the budget by the end of the year," said then Toncic ("News", 28 the 3rd 2011.). It seems that the needs of the state was much higher than the planned 500 million euros, only six months later made a billion dollars of debt.

Otherwise, the Serbian dinar constantly emit bills of the current liquidity to finance the budget. Only in 2011. planned for the show-bills in the amount of 280 billion dinars. Where will that money raised go? Refinancing earlier issued a record 235 billion earmarked, and only about 45 billion goes to finance the deficit. Official data from the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) show that the public debt of the Republic of Serbia and uncontrolled increases in the fact that particularly affects the broadcasting of government securities. Only in the first quarter of the 2011th The debt on this basis increased by 72.4 billion, and at the end of March stood at 250.5 billion dinars. Already in the second quarter of the 2011th The debt on Treasury bills increased by 54.3 billion at end-June amounted to 304.9 billion dinars. Government bonds are particularly attractive Western banks operating in Serbia, given that the state gives them an interest rate of 13 to 14 percent. A late September this year, interest on a two-year bills to as much as 14.9 percent.

MIRKO CHAMPION: At the macro-economic level government Mirko Cvetkovic is historic because it was able to borrow for three years, Serbia for 5.7 billion euros and that this balance in growth for every second for 58 euros. Only in this election year the Government commissioned the citizens for more than 2 billion euros, and further borrowing trend continues until the last day of her life. Prime Minister not concerned that in 2008. The government took over the government debt of 8.7 billion euros, and then it increased to 14.4 billion euros. It also influenced the growth of Serbia's external debt which in the first quarter of 2008. year was 17.9 billion euros, and at the end of July 2011. year reached 23.1 billion euros. Serbia is slowly but surely approaching the upper limit of indebtedness of 45 percent of GDP by the Serbian government as a fiscal rule set by the IMF, that is prescribed by the new Law on Budgetary System. After broadcasting Eurobonds, amounting to one billion dollars, Serbia's public debt rose to 44.4 percent, which means that the "red lights" is missing only 0.6 percentage points.

Leaders of the Fiscal Council, a body which by law should have an advisory role in preventing the collapse of public finances, are not overly optimistic. According to their estimates, even if fiscal rules are respected, the public debt by 2015. years, could get out of control and to reach 60 per cent of GDP, if growth rate in Serbia is 2 instead of 3 percent. The projected fiscal policy and adopted by cabinet's in 2011. year, she suffered a total fiasco that resulted in an additional budget deficit of around 200 million euros. After review by the Serbian Parliament, the budget deficit has ballooned to 142.7 billion, while the consolidated deficit of the government, including local government funds and amounts to 153 billion dinars. The fire was trodden by borrowing short-term and long-term government debt for our future generations, and this trend can be expected in 2012. year. In addition to the problem of what is at stake election year, at all levels of government, in which the party regime, as this was the case until now, financed his election campaign and propaganda from state coffers.

SELL WHAT: In the coming years, the state government will face a serious problem, and this is the fact that Serbia no longer has anything to sell. This is what was beheaded current Minister Mirko Cvetkovic and that is what will next behead the Serbian government. The instruments of fiscal policy that led all governments since 2000. , are not in themselves be sophisticated. State budget is primarily filled with three "tools" that allowed high public spending, politicking, marketing and corruption, such as: privatization, loans and grants. Donations are dried to the extent to which they were blowing in the back "democratic" and "progressive" political forces, while the corrupt privatization is swallowed and destroyed the Serbian economy. In Serbia, in the period since 2002. by 2011. year, 3017 companies privatized, but the contract is terminated 636 (21 percent), so the net effect of privatization, the company sold 2381. Thanks to that achieved revenues of 2.6 billion and contracted investment of 1.1 billion euros.

The last failed attempt the sale of state company "Telekom Serbia", whereby the Government was planning to provide the money for better starting position in the election campaign, indicates that potential buyers want to take what is left in Serbia, but only for free. According to the Ministry of Finance, in January-September 2011. year, 12 enterprises were privatized, creating a revenue of only 13.1 million. Of these, 11.9 million euros from the sale of minority packages of shares in the capital market, which also represents over 90 percent of privatization revenues in 2011. year. So, if the State consolidated record deficit of 153 billion, and the privatization exercise only 1.3 billion debt, then the regime is seen as the only alternative. At the same time the annual budget of Serbia suffered damages of about € 300 million due to reduced customs revenues as a result of servility to the regime of the EU and the harmful use of the Stabilization and Association Agreement with EU countries.

So, without other people's money, with a devastated economy, limited agriculture, and the invading predatory-minded European Union, the leeches from the IMF and Western banks, Serbia is imposed as a way of borrowing without any alternative. Historical significance of Prime Minister Mirko Cvetković is that such a time, tutoring and conditioning chosen purely to survive politically for four years. And her black historical trace is even greater, as captured by the current consumption for the sake of a new generation in Serbia, which will be hard to return the principal and interest.


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